Anyone calling this a fear premium is missing the actual signal.
When someone tells you this is just sentiment,
point them to the tanker data.
The oil is physically unable to move.
That changes everything.
Fear premiums react to headlines.
They react to statements.
They react to political updates.
But physical disruptions do not.
You can have a tweet saying a deal is close.
You can have headlines saying the Strait may reopen.
None of that moves supply.
Because words do not move barrels of oil.
And until barrels move,
prices reflect reality, not optimism.
That distinction is what determines how you respond.
What do you trust more in markets, political signals or physical data?