Anyone watching oil markets should know this mid April deadline.
Around mid April,
reserves and sanctioned barrels run dry.
That is the buffer the market is relying on right now.
And even if a deal happens tomorrow,
even if the Strait fully reopens tomorrow,
supply does not just snap back.
Producers need three to four months, minimum,
to restart shut in production safely.
So there is a gap.
The buffer disappears.
But supply is not back yet.
That gap is the oil cliff.
The market is running on borrowed time.
And that time has an expiration date.
What do you think happens to prices when that gap hits?