People calling this a fear-driven oil spike are solving the wrong problem.
Every time oil jumps after a geopolitical event,
the market labels it a fear premium.
A threat.
A sentiment panic.
But that framing misses what is actually happening.
The market is trained to default to emotion.
Fear.
Sentiment.
Narratives that move fast.
But oil does not move on narratives.
It moves on fundamentals.
It moves on infrastructure.
On logistics.
On whether supply can physically reach the market.
And right now, that system is under stress.
This is not a sentiment problem.
This is a structural one.
And if you misread the cause,
you misread what happens next.
What do you rely on more when markets move, sentiment or fundamentals?